Just a few thoughts…

  • I’ve been seeing some discussion on Twitter and elsewhere about how Democrats may be underestimating Trump’s chances at getting reelected.  The idea goes that he’s so underwater on approval, how could he possibly be reelected?  Well, the economy is good.  And he’s an incumbent President.  And the Electoral College.  Which Democratic candidate he’ll face in November will also play a part, but if you’re asking this question now, then it’s all about the economy, incumbency and Electoral College.
  • But, may I propose a different way of looking at it for the time being?  What are the odds that Donald Trump gets a majority of the votes for President?  Well, he didn’t in 2016 against Hillary.  He’ll probably do worse this year, right?  Regardless of who the Democratic candidate is.  And where’s his popularity at in the country?  About 50% disapprove of him.  Maybe we should also look at it from the perspective of how Trump is an incumbent President, with all of those advantages, and he’s the beneficiary of a good economy, which usually means the President gets reelected, and still he’s no sure thing to win next November.  So, yeah, we don’t elect our President by majority vote.  So getting fewer votes than the Democrat can still lead to an Electoral College win for Trump.  Instead of worrying about whether that will lead to a Trump second term, maybe we should lean into that issue a little and ask ourselves if that’s really how we want the occupant of the White House to be selected.
  • And speaking of the Electoral College, I’d like to be the 2 million and sixth person to point out the hypocrisy of the folks on the Right who, in one breath, defend the way we elect our President, because that’s what the Constitution says, and then in the next breath, claim the impeachment is illegitimate, even though the House Dems are doing exactly what the Constitution says they can.  And should, imo.
  • There’s part of me that hopes that the debate on Thursday gets scuppered due to the fact that the Democratic candidates (rightly) will not cross a picket line.  One, I’m gonna have to record the debate and watch on delay anyway so that we can do some pre-Christmas family fun.  And, two, it might also highlight an area where I think the Democrats should really focus in 2020.  It should be about workers and the working class.  Many working class voters go with Trump for…I don’t know what reasons.  But the Democratic Party should be the party of workers.  Taking a high profile stand for unions going into 2020 is a step in the right direction.
  • But, I expect they’ll clear things up and I’ll be doing my recap of the debate, just a little delayed.